Friday, March 22, 2013

2013 is the world's economic transition?

World seems to be filled with a kind of optimism, and this optimism makes the theme of the 2013 winter davos BBS no longer obsessing over the crisis itself, but looking in the post-crisis era.

We should so optimistic? Indeed, the world economy has brought a series of recent positive signals: real estate recovery, an inventory and manufacturing investment accelerated to drive the U.S. economy went up. The U.S. housing market recovery was established, and the best sales since the financial crisis. In December last year, according to the United States all home type average stock price of $180800, up 11.5% from a year earlier. Across America, existing-home inventories dropped 8.5%, a record since January 2001. American manufacturing present rare strength: for many years production growth is much higher than general GDP growth, and thus to create more employment opportunities and investment recovery.

The European debt crisis are also showing signs gradually ease: ChongZhaiGuo yields declined obviously, effectively ease liquidity in the market, the stability of the banking system and financial market has been consolidated, the real economy is being "bottom out" for the test. From the euro zone's PM I first index, the index of economic sentiment and consumer confidence index, the economy of the euro area is near or at the bottom. e.g the export of computer products is more and more lower last year, if you buy a 90W dell pa-10 pa10 ac adapter, you must pay for unit price + shipping fee, total amount is lower last year.

To judge the crisis is over, however, I'm afraid it is still too early. In davos BBS, IM F will this year global economic growth forecast to 3.5% and 3.5% respectively, compared with last year October forecasts by 0.1% respectively, IM F extreme optimism to early revision reflects the complexity and the faltering global economic recovery.

Even if, when the worst of the global economy has been in the past, but the government debt in the developed countries, economic recovery very difficult. Essentially, both in the subprime crisis and the European debt crisis are over the debt and, therefore, out of the crisis is also the process of repairing process of the balance sheet. According to the current balance sheet repair, including the financial sector and the household sector, the private sector in the process of "deleveraging" almost coming to an end, and the private sector "deleveraging" is still in its early stage. Debt risk is transferred to the government departments, how to reduce huge government deficits is the developed countries the most headache thing.

Solve the problem of fiscal and debt imbalances, America and Japan's government is not too much good, more didn't break the vicious debt cycle. The U.S. government to take the strategy of "delay"; While the Japanese government "to burn", not only through the bond buying program indefinitely, pushing the yen, throw out of total 20.2 trillion yen more large-scale economic stimulus plan, this will not only increase Japan's debt crisis also let Japan as the world's new unstable factors; Europe in 2013 will remain at peak period of repayment and refinancing boom, there are about 490 billion euros due debt concentration, within the eu interest game, in deficit, debt ratio high and economic growth remains anemic, against the background of the sovereign debt crisis is also likely to again and again.

The slowdown in the developed countries and large-scale double spillover effects of quantitative easing (qe), are also spread to emerging economies, who is highly dependent on exports and resource exports to emerging economies, such as China, Brazil, India, Russia, without exception, has received the very big impact, unsustainable model of economic growth. It is estimated that Brazil's economic growth was only 1% in 2012, and the growth rate of the second lowest in nearly 10 years (after 2009-0.3%); Russia also is expected to hit a decade lows. Once inflation back will help emerging economies was forced to enter the monetary tightening cycle in advance, and to crack down on economic growth, therefore, speed up structural adjustment response to the potential growth rate, external demand to domestic demand growth power conversion, is imminent.

Now, we still underestimated the severity of the crisis and the long-term. With several times in the history of economic recovery cycle is compared, this recovery cycle is very long, is also very difficult. Because this is the first time since the economic globalization global economic structure adjustment, the adjustment has only just started, waiting for our will is "thorns" of recovery, the global economy will have to be in transition.

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